New test to predict teenage binge drinking

Underage drinking is a global problem and the UK is ranked as one of the most afflicted countries. Health researchers have developed a new test to help identify people with a problem.

According to a poll of 15 and 16-year-olds, 33 per cent of British respondents had drunk alcohol in the last 30 days. Only in Denmark and the Isle of Man is teenage drinking worse, with 49 per cent of Danish 15 and 16-year-olds already drinking. This poll formed part of the last pieces of research by Professor Martin Plant.

In America the legal age for drinking is 21 years, which ranks alongside Qatar and United Arab Emirates. Surveys suggest that around 11 per cent of people between the age of 12 and 20 years drink alcohol; it can be assumed that people in their late teens are responsible for most of the drinking.

In almost all of these cases it is assumed that the nature of the drinking is that of binge drinking, however, as far as can be told the surveys do not actually differentiate between drinking some alcohol with family at meal times and binge drinking with friends. In most countries at least, drinking alcohol with family is legal, it is the purchase of alcohol that is controlled.

However, binge drinking is certainly a major problem and traits seen early on are likely to continue into adulthood; in some cases people with a tendency to binge drink during their teenage years will go on to develop alcohol dependency problems.

Researchers at University College Dublin in Ireland have developed a test that may identify children who are likely to go on to develop a binge drinking habit. The study was led by Dr Robert Whelan and published in the July 2014 edition of Nature.

The research applied machine learning to analyse data from a European study called IMAGEN to build models of current and future adolescent alcohol abuse. They found that a combination of specific life experiences, neurobiological differences and personality are significant indicators of binge drinking.

Previously, an individual’s genes were thought to be the most important factor in determining a future problem with alcohol. The new research analysis gathered data on brain structure and function, personality, cognitive ability, environmental factors (including gestational cigarette and alcohol exposure), life experiences and genetics.

The researchers also discovered that negative life events, especially those concerning romantic and sexual relationships, were predictors of future binge drinking. The study also discovered that only one or two incidences of alcohol consumption at the age of 14 years could be a strong predictor of binge drinking at the age of 16.

Although the research does not provide a way to directly stop a person being at risk of binge drinking, it can help identify more vulnerable people and this information can provide support workers with the opportunity to approach youngsters and offer counselling. It is hoped that if children can be identified as being at risk early enough counselling can help to prevent permanent problems developing.

This test may also be a predictor of other forms of abuse and addiction. Past studies have linked binge drinking with overeating. It may be that some people develop a tendency to over-consume at an early age, and the root cause of this usually lies in emotional and environmental influences.